The Numbers Don't Add Up

I recently asked my elected official to vote yes on an item that would close the loophole for fracking wastewater.  The response is pasted below.

Steve,

The Department of Environmental Conservation has completed an extensive study on hydrofracking and recently released the Department’s final recommendations.  The regulations are among the most stringent in the country, and all permits will be closely evaluated and monitored by DEC.

The DEC rules will give drillers access to about 85% of the Marcellus Shale allowing companies to resume low-volume hydraulic fracturing for natural gas wells.  The recommendations specifically prohibit high volume hydrofracking in the Marcellus Shale field in the New York City and Syracuse watersheds including a buffer zone.

Low volume hydrofracking has been safely employed in New York since the 1940’s.  The DEC has provided successful oversight of these natural gas wells for more than 60 years, and I have confidence in the Department’s ability to continue appropriate review of this industry.

According to NYSERDA, there are 4,500-5,000 people employed in the well drilling industry.  Prior to the recent moratorium, there were 670 wells drilled in 2008 and 580 drilled in 2009 in the Medina shale alone.  These wells average 3,200 feet deep and require less that 75,000 gallons of water for hydrofracking.  By comparison if wells were to be hydrofracked in the Marcellus-Utica shale, the wells average 10,000 feet, require millions of gallons of water and involve horizontal drilling.

Allowing low-volume hydrofracking to resume will not only save our state about 5,000 jobs but will also result in annual investments in oil and gas wells of approximately $25 million.  In addition New York will collect over $1 million in local community real property taxes, about $5 million in royalty payments and over $1 million in fee revenue.  In fact some upstate business groups project the drilling will create 15,000 jobs and generate $1.7 billion in economic activity.

All of us recognize the state’s responsibility to preserve our water sheds and environment.  The responsibility must be reasonably implemented as the state also has a responsibility to preserve and create new jobs and economic development.  I believe DEC has found the appropriate balance at this time as the Department continues to study the viability of high-volume hydrofracking.  The Governor has appointed a 13 member Advisory Panel of experts including people from environmental groups to assist DEC in its final evaluations taking place over the next several months.

I realize this is an unusually long response, but I believe the importance of this issue must be fully explained.  For more information, you may want to read the entire report at www.dec.state.ny.us

Thank you for sharing your views with me, and please feel free to contact me at any time.

Now, I didn't ask for opposition to fracking (at least not in that letter).  I asked that a yes vote be recorded to close the loopholes in the disposal of wastewater (A.7013/S.4616).

I'm not new to reports and data, so I looked real quick at the numbers.  According to this response, we currently have an upward total of 5,000 jobs in the well drilling industry.  Assuming that all the wells in New York are those that were drilled in 2008 (670 wells) and 2009 (580 wells), there would be a total of 1,250 wells.  That's 4 jobs for each well.  But those wells were in the Medina shale alone, so if there are more that 1,250 wells, it's less that 4 jobs per well.

It's further stated that allowing fracking will create 15,000 jobs.  At 4 jobs per well, that would equate to 3,750 new wells.  Really?

As I said, I see reports daily.  I always ask does the report make sense?  If the numbers benefit the person that gave them to me, show me the raw data.  I took a quick look at the 2009 DEC report (the latest available) and found the following on wells in New York:

All reported wells  14,512

Active wells 

• Natural Gas - 6,628
• Oil - 3,401
• Gas Storage - 953
• Solution Salt - 108

Based on this and the NYSERDA estimate of 5,000 current jobs, and just using active natural gas wells, how do we get to 15,000 jobs? 

All this and we still have the unaddressed issue of what is going to be done with the highly toxic wastewater at a minimum of 75,000 gallons per well.

Maybe my numbers don't add up either, but then, I'm not the expert.  The fact that we can't get the real numbers on paper is a fracking shame. 

Just saying.... 

Zeros

I have always been told there are only two things in life that are certain; death and taxes.  Now I'm beginning to wonder.

It seems that, if you are a millionaire or billionaire, you can avoid taxes.  Can you imagine having a net worth of over $1,000,000,000 and being able to pay fewer taxes than someone that makes less than $100,000 a year?  Way too cool.

Don't get me wrong, I don't hold it against someone for making that many zeros; to get there, you or someone in your family has to be pretty savvy.  It's not wrong to try making as much money as you can, that's what we all want.

Making that many zeros means you don't have to worry about things like Social Security, Medicaid or Medicare.  You also get to hire a bunch of people (with a lot less zeros, by the way) to make sure you get to keep your zeros and  not have to give many away to help support those inferior zero makers.  If those that make less than 5 zeros can't ever stop working, that's their problem.

Doesn't it seem kind of odd that a lot of the people making the tax laws that limit the amount of taxes on the very wealthy fall within the laws that limit or exempt taxes?  Or, if they don't fall within the very wealthy category, large percentages of their campaign contributions come from those that are?

It would seem that those that make zeros have pretty much gotten their tax part solved.  Now, GOP, about that death thing.

Just saying...

"Yeah, Well"

It seems that every child has a built in reaction to getting into trouble.  Usually it's "Yeah well, Jimmy made me do it", or "Yeah, well Mary does it".  As adults, we try to teach our children to be responsible for their own actions and often respond "Yeah, well if Jimmy (or Mary) jumped off a bridge, would you?".

Adults will say to their children, "Yeah, well you made the mess, you clean it up".  But our actions don't support our words.  We deny we made the climate mess and blame it on someone or something else.  Sure, as an example, volcanic activity spews greenhouse gasses and particulates into the air.  When the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajohull erupted, people said to me "Yeah, well there goes all your green efforts", like this one eruption explained the increase in greenhouse gasses for the past century.  Any number of natural phenomena or events will cause an increase or decrease in the natural CO2 level.  But those changes take place over a period of time that allows for the natural dispersion of the greenhouse gasses.  We have concentrated millions of years of this into less than 200 years and the Earth can't keep up.

Earlier this week, I was tasked with bringing disposable cups to a barbeque.  I spent a good deal of time going through the different options and settled on one that, if not reused, was at least recyclable.  Knowing that the waste service where the barbeque was being held didn't accept this type of product for their recycling program, I offered that any cup that was not going to be reused, I would take home and recycle it with my provider.  When I responded to a question as to why, their response was rather unsettling, "Yeah well, I'm not going to be here when it happens anyway, so why should I care".

There are any number of things we can do to fight climate change and we should care.  We did make this mess and we are responsible.  With the youth movements that are currently taking place, I can almost hear them saying "Yeah, well you made this mess and now I have to clean it up".  It's not right.

Just saying...

Choice or Circumstance

I am always glad to leave the city, but it's also bittersweet. Although last night was short, as is typical, a little of my last night is spent walking the streets, looking at the sights, watching the people and listening to the sounds of a city.

I'm not sure why I am so mesmerized by city life. At home, I enjoy going into the backyard, listening to the night and looking at the stars. In the city, there are no stars and very few sounds of nature. Sure, there are birds that fly around now and then, but it's mostly traffic and artificial light. Still, it has a beauty of it's own.

I think a part of it is the fact that I can get lost in the crowd. There's no one that knows you, your problems, your cares or your worries. It doesn't seem to matter if you're rich, but people certainly know if you are poor or homeless.

While walking early one morning, I made a phone call and, as is habit, wore my ear buds so I didn't have to hold the phone to my ear. To keep the ear bud cord from catching on anything, I snake it under my shirt and carry the phone in my pants pocket. As I was talking on the phone, I guess it looked like I was talking to my self and laughing occasionally. The looks and obvious avoidance was amazing.

In contrast, this morning, I was clean shaven and freshly clothed, carrying my shoulder bag. Although not on the phone, I was listening to some music, ear buds fashioned in the same manner as the day before. I had to pass through a movie set, which I had done several times this week. I was stopped twice and asked, somewhat excitedly, if I was a part of the movie crew.

Yesterday, people avoided me, today I was thought to be a somebody. The only difference being a plastic shopping bag versus a Coach shoulder bag and fresh travel clothes as opposed to old jeans and a shirt.

Arguably, what we are comes down to choice or circumstance. I met a girl, a security guard at the convention center, and we were talking. She was asking about the places I had been. As I described some of the cities on the west coast, mid-western and southern states as well as England, she said someday she'd like to go places, but for now, she couldn't. She explained that she was a single mother, that her child's father had been murdered and she needed her money to take care of her child. Her's was a circumstance, not a choice.

I met a very well traveled and intelligent man that worked as a bellman. He chose that line of work. He was a wonderful jazz pianist (we snuck onto the 17th floor and he played the baby grand for me). But it was his choice to work as a bellman and have the freedom to play his music rather than be tied to a job that didn't allow him that freedom.

It's a habit of mine to search out the real people of a city and engage them. I know I'm not perfect, I am sometimes too quick to judge and need to take a moment to ask myself, is it choice or circumstance. But then, what difference does it make, we are what we are. While talking to the security guard, I told her I had spent Sunday afternoon at a gay rally. She was surprised, but said "you really don't judge people, do you". I always try not to.

Just saying....


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The Polyphemus Moth

I caught this moth is some short grass and, while it is widespread through much of North America, I couldn't pass up the opportunity for a photograph.

The Polyphemus Moth (Antheraea polyphemus) is a giant silk moth, with a wingspan reaching up to 6 inches (15 cm). This particular one had a wingspan of about 5 inches and has an injured right forewing. The moth is nocturnal, so it's possible the cause of the injury or the injury itself was the reason it was out during the daylight.

The distinctive purplish eyespots on the hindwings give it its name, from the Greek myth of the cyclops Polyphemus. This distractive pattern is a defense mechanism to protect itself against predators, probably through misdirection. Underneath, the wings look like dead leaves, which also deters predators.

It lays flat, light brown eggs on the leaves of its host plant. The eggs hatch into small yellow caterpillars that molt 5 times, with the 5th being into a pupa. In this 5th stage, the caterpillars are a bright green with yellow stripes and red and silver spots on their sides and can grow 3 to 4 inches long.

The caterpillars are vulnerable to predators including birds, small mammals and some predatory insects. One type of wasp is a parasite of the caterpillars. It injects eggs into the caterpillar where the larvae hatch and feed on the caterpillar's body.

When they emerge from the cocoon, typically in late May or early June, their purpose is to mate. Once mated, the female spends the remainder of her life laying eggs, while the male may mate several more times. Because they have reduced mouth parts, they do not eat and typically live for less than a week.

The Polyphemus is a very interesting moth, which I feel fortunate to have seen and photographed.

Just saying....

Details on Adirondack Economic Development, Please?

The Adirondack Park was established in 1892 with the 1938 constitutional convention providing for the current language in the New York State Constitution, Article XIV.

The Adirondack Park covers approximately 6.1 million acres, greater in size than Yellowstone, Yosemite, Grand Canyon, Glacier and Great Smokey Mountains National Parks combined.  According to the 2009 Adirondack Park Regional Assessment Report (APRAP), the Adirondack Park is home to 12 counties, 103 municipalities and approximately 132,000 residents.

As seems to be the case more often than not, the Adirondack Park is again under pressure for  economic development.  In one direction, criticisms are made against those who are trying to protect the park from inappropriate use while, in the other direction, criticisms are made against those who want development.

I am one who wants the Adirondack Park protected, but I am not necessarily opposed to economic development within the "Blue Line".  Recently, in correspondence on a different topic, one of our elected officials used the words "reasonable" and "responsible" in response to my objections.  I believe those words apply to all development, along with "accountable".

Through all of the discussions, I have yet to see any studies or suggestions as to what types of real, sustained economic development is wanted.  We surely can't think that bringing in timber or mining industries will prevent young families from a mass exodus from the area?

Obviously the solution is not simple, but we need to protect our environment while we promote economic growth.  To destroy the environment through economic development would destroy the very reason we think this is a great place to live, work and raise a family.

Just saying....

To Potential 2012 Candidates

The potential 2012 candidates are beginning to position themselves, so I thought I'd get a jump on the polls.

Typically I make a list of my top items and begin rating candidates on their agenda against my list. The candidate who has the agenda that most closely matches my agenda gets my vote.  I list the usual agenda items like foreign policy, economic growth, debt issues, etc.  Its not very scientific, but it works for me.  For 2012, the candidates who receive my vote:

1. Will NOT have received substantial contributions from gas, coal or oil companies, recently or over their career.
2. Will openly acknowledge that human activity directly contributes to climate change.
3. Will clearly state a high level (or detailed strategy) to move the US into clean energy.
4. Will acknowledge the importance of the Endangered Species Act and not accept any attempts to weaken it.
5. Will state a high level plan to reduce the toxins that are introduced into our food supply.

I know it might be complex in the details, but I think my list is pretty short.  I'm not asking for too much, simply environmental stewardship and protection of our civilization from dangerous chemicals.  The other issues are important and can still be addressed, they're just not on my list.

Just saying....

Lake Champlain Management

In the May 26 edition of the Press-Republican, an individual had a letter to the editor published, the title of which was Lake Management, hence the title for this post. As I write this, it was predicted the lake would rise to 112.5 feet, well above flood stage of 100 feet.

The letter suggested and supported the need for a plan to lower the non-flood lake level by two feet. Reference was made to a plan from the 1930's and the revival some years later. The writer stated "The powers then in charge backed down, giving in to environmentalists concerned about its potential impact on the snail, frog and reptile populations".

The writer admitted he wasn't a bible reader, but was familiar with a reference claiming "the Lord gave man domain over all creatures of the Earth" and he asked if it was reasonable to believe that the greater good is served by enduring billions of dollars or more of damage or losses to save a few snails?

I admit I'm not an avid bible reader either, but if we are going to say that God gave us the right to preserve the human species without consideration for any other species, I'll offer the following:

"Then the Lord God took the man and put him in the Garden of Eden to tend and keep it" (Gensis 2:15, New King James version)

Just saying....

Accepting Climate Change

While most of the rest of the civilized world seems to have accepted climate change, it is still a very hotly debated topic in the US.

The first step for us, from a very high level, is to decide for ourselves whether there has been a change in our climate or not.  We have all said and heard comments such as “the winters are starting later”, “the winters are shorter”, “it’s hotter”, “it’s muggier”, I think you get the idea.  What we’re really saying is “the climate has changed”.  So the first step is pretty much set, the climate has and is changing.  We just need to recognize it for what it is.

The next step is to try to come to some understanding of what is causing the change.  The climate changes regularly, in geological time terms anyway.  It’s pretty well understood that ice ages come and go, that the earth warms and cools naturally.  Scientifically, there are a number of reasons as to why this takes place.  Volcanoes erupt; the ash cloud circles the globe, blocking sunlight, creating a cooling effect.  When events such as these occur, the biosphere cleanses itself over time.  But these events don’t occur constantly, minute after minute, day after day. 

We (the human species) expel the same gasses that occur naturally, every minute of every day.  I don’t know that there is much argument that we send carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, black carbon (soot) and halocarbons into the environment constantly.  So really, we all agree on the second step of understanding.

The third step is accepting the science that our continual introduction of these gasses contributes to climate change.  There are basically two camps; the science camp, which includes both scientists and non-scientists, who conduct the tests, report the results and agree that human activity (you may have seen it referred to as anthropogenic impact) contributes and accelerates climate change, and the political/corporate camp that simply denies that the accelerated introduction of these gasses by human activity has any effect on anything (including our health).

This is the hard part.  People like you and me don’t really know much about halocarbons, what they are or where they come from.  What we do know is that we put people in place that we thought we could trust and would stand up for our interests.  We look to these people to do what’s right for us.  Because of this, we are torn between what to believe, the science or the politics.

We also see corporate officials, some even scientists, who say the corporation would never do anything to harm its consumers.  The problem with that is that’s what corporate scientists get paid to say and the corporation is in business to make money.  But we see these successful corporations and think the people running them must be pretty smart, so they must know what they’re talking about.

We need to be careful.  I’m not sure how many of the elected officials have science degrees and can read a study, or how many corporations would be willing to say, “Yeah, this is going to kill you, buy it anyway”.  We need to sift through what we are given and understand climate change is about science.  It isn’t about shareholder profits or the next election and the campaign contributions needed.  Climate change is about you and me, our children and our grandchildren.  The best thing you can do is read the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.  There’s also a good book, Dire Predictions, Understanding Global Warming, that uses terms you and I can understand and very good accompanying graphics.

Just saying…

My Big Oil History

When I was a kid, my parents, like all parents, asked me what I wanted to be when I grew up.  My response was "I want to be a hermit".  As I grew older, I lost that ambition from the list of things I wanted to become.

My days as a youngster were filled with the outdoors.  I would spend hours in the woods behind our house, exploring and searching.  I practiced my outdoor skills and set up an outpost in an old log cabin that had been abandoned.

When the bugs pushed me from the woods, I headed for the mighty St. Lawrence River.  I fished and swam all day, every day, until school started in the fall.  Then school was just an interruption in my time in the woods.  It was a great way to spend a childhood.

In June of 1976, the tugboat Eileen C was pushing the NEPCO 140 barge filled with crude oil up the St. Lawrence when it ran aground.  It backed of the rock and continued, as it leaked oil into the river.  Four miles later, it ran aground again.  All told, some 300,000 gallons of oil leaked from the barge, covering an 80-mile stretch of the river.  I lived in the middle of that stretch.

That summer, there was no swimming, fishing or anything other than oil clean up.  Clean up of the shoreline, the docks, the boats and everything else that touched the water.  But it was the wildlife that was the worst.  The waterfowl, animals, birds and amphibians that were affected was beyond belief.  But it wasn't just that summer.  We pulled crude off rocks in the islands for a long time.

So I have a connection with Big Oil as well as with the residents of the Gulf.  While 300,000 gallons doesn't compare to the volume spilled as a result of the Deepwater Horizon disaster, I can understand.

Today, oil companies are fighting to retain their subsidies and tax breaks and attempt to gain access to additional drilling sites, similar to the site of the Deepwater Horizon platform, while we try to see if we can keep schools open.  Oil companies report record profits while people I know couldn't afford to heat their homes this past winter.

The government says there's no money, yet recently that same government voted to continue handing oil companies tax breaks and subsidies.  If you look at the politicians that voted to keep giving these companies their benefits, you'll notice that a lot of them have received substantial contributions from the oil companies.  The 67 co-sponsors of the bill to expand oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and open the coastal waters of Virginia to exploration received a combined total of over $8.8 million in campaign contributions from the oil and gas industry during the course of their careers.  Makes one wonder about the motive behind the vote.

I'm not naive and I don't think we can stop using petroleum tomorrow, but I do think there needs to be a plan that's better than the one we have now.  Sometimes the life of a hermit doesn't look so bad.  Just saying...